Sucks to be Northrop Right Now

It is highly likely the Air Force will reopen the tanker contract previously won by NGC and subsequently protested by Boeing. At stake is $35 billion. Obviously, the winner today is Boeing's KC-767AT proposal and NGC's KC-45 proposal the loser, but I argue the real losers are the armed services who will have to endure yet another delay before a replacement tanker will come online to replace the aging KC-10 and KC-135 fleet.

I ask you, after the Boeing fiasco where that company was penalized for rigging the first attempt to award the contract, how did the Air Force blow this one? I would have thought all of the t's were crossed and the i's dotted; now it seems the Air Force dotted the former and crossed the later.

Although the KC-45 airframes produced in Alabama, they are EADS designed Airbus A330s, a European product. Boeing 767s are produced and designed in Seattle. Is this a case of parochial protectionism? I would argue we need to overlook such concepts, for it is far better to procure best-of-breed products, we would be endangering our servicemen and women to do otherwise. Of course, where products involve sensitive or classified information, I argue to keep it all onshore. The tanker, though, is an airframe, not communications encryption.

One might also suspect a deep conspiracy--with defense dollars dwindling for new development because of ongoing war commitments--this could be a ploy by the brass to further delay committing money to this project on the contractor's dime until a new fiscal year comes about.

In the end, we taxpayers can only watch the DoD as it compounds newer and more ingenious ways to budgetary disaster.

F-35B First Flight

sdd_f35testb_012
Originally uploaded by kawfeadikt

A long time coming, and much anticipated. The F-35B (BF-1) lifted off for its maiden flight yesterday, flown by British pilot, Graham Tomlinson--a nod to our allies who are in line to purchase the B variant along with our own Marines.

This aircraft cannot come soon enough, replacing an aged Harrier fleet and providing expanded capabilities to the USMC. Next up in the program for Lockheed-Northrop-BAE will be the C variant, the replacement for the Navy's F/A-18.

Even now, as the B variant begins its test program, AA-1 continues its flight testing, there are A and B test articles in production, the first C variant (CF-1) has probably begun assembly, and LRIP is beginning for all variants as well.

The ONLY downside to my current job is missing being on the "inside" of the JSF program. Not only were there great amounts of satisfaction from participating in the aircraft's development, but observing everything coming together in an intricate dance to produce each variant was wondrous. Heady times for the engineers there!

V22 issues

The article doesn't say why, but apparently the engines are wearing out faster then the manufacturer said they would. Not good news but at least they found the problem before any aircraft were lost.

More problems with the 787

Will Boeing please fix this plane and get it flying? Don't turn the Dreamliner into a nightmare please.

Sweeden a Cold War Ally?

Sweden may start competing with the US in the area of fighter sales to Norway and other potential JSF customers. Will the US allow that, given much of the technology in the Swedish fighters comes from the US? And if the US doesn't allow Sweden to sell its airplanes against the JSF, what will that do for US-Sweden relations?

Economics can have an important impact on defense policy.

Say it isn't so . . . . the end of the F-117

The Air Force will retire the last of the F-117s in Nevada next month.

The plane first flew in 1981 and entered service in 1983. The plane is young compared to our F-15s, F-16s, A-10s, B-52s, AWACs, KC-135 and a contemporary of the KC-10, B-1 and FA-18.

The F-22 is supposed to replace the F-117, but I do not think it can carry the same bomb load.

The AF is retiring the plane early to free up money for more F-22s, F-35s and new tankers.

Now I know I'm getting old when airplanes that were the cutting edge when fielded (I was a Jr in High School in 83) are being retired.

Its starting

Britain's armed forces are sending pilotless "robot" strike aircraft into battle for the first time, allowing controllers sitting at a computer outside Las Vegas to drop guided bombs on the Taliban in Afghanistan.

The "Reaper" unmanned aerial vehicle marks a major watershed for the Royal Air Force and has been rushed into service after senior defence chiefs identified it as a vital weapon in the fight against Taliban insurgents.

The only thing I have to say is when will they be armed with lasers (phasers would be even better) and can we use them to knock off more trouble makers in the world?

Tanker Deal

Article in the Seattle Times saying the reason Boeing lost the tanker deal is their proposal was inferior to Airbus in all aspects. If Boeing expected to be handed the contract, well they have been given a rude awakening. While I would rather Boeing win then Airbus, I really do want the best contract to win and so far it looks like Airbus' was the best contract.

Tanker deal

The WSJ (subscription required) has just announced that Northrop and Airbus have won the $40 billion contract to build new tankers for the Air Force.

The tanker will be based on the Airbus A330 airplane. The Boeing plane would have been based on the 767 airplane.

While I would rather have had Boeing win, they deserved to lose because of their actions back in 2001. And because of their actions, the cost of the program has almost doubled, the planes still haven't been designed or built and the Air Force is still flying 40 to 50 year old KC-135s.

Just Lost 5% of Our Stealth Bombers

Okay, more accurately, 4.76%. One of the 21 B-2's in the Air Force inventory crashed on Guam. Kind of makes you wonder what happens in the future as continued attrition reduces their numbers and the B-1s and B-52s retire. I sure hope that we aren't sitting around getting the Long Range Strike requirement fulfilled because as wonderful as the B-2 is, it isn't worth anything if there aren't any to execute missions.

Blackfive posted concerns for the Northrop Grumman/EADS entry into the Air Force's bid to obtain new tankers.

I commented thus:

I used to work for Northrop Grumman on a few unrelated aircraft programs (Full disclosure: I hold no economic interest in NGC), where I read the company press releases for the NGC led partnership with EADS. I submit, however, the reliance on EADS isn't as technologically threatening as one might suppose.

Sure, developing new technology is risky and seldom goes as the managers plan (often a pollyanna view of development) and I would be hard-pressed to approve any sort of defense development with EADS where American industry is dependent on European ability to develop or share new technology. Shoot, I would be hard pressed to be dependent on American ability to develop new technology.

The thing of it is the way the partnership is currently framed. I admit not knowing the entire program specifics, but from what I can tell, NGC as the prime takes the already existing Airbus airframe and integrates other subsystems for the tanker mission. From the standpoint of EADS involvement, there is low risk, as long as the existing airframe meets the needs of the integrator without change. If we were only sharing with EADS what is necessary for integration, then I see little risk of "brain suck".

This is a tanker, not the F-35 or F-22. Other than defensive and communication systems, there should be little else that is sensitive. I would think that NGC would be integrating these without much involvement from EADS other than what it takes to get it on the aircraft.

The heart of the tanker issue is not the technology, but the politics. Still, is this really an issue? The reality of modern defense contracting is foreign corporations already are involved in American defense contracting--globalization at work. Just look up BAE and see how they're involved in DoD contracting. We do the same, look up Eurohawk--a Europeanized version of the Global Hawk. The F-35 is a prime example of what's going on today. The F-16 is being produced by Koreans. If we hue and cry about the EADS tanker, cry about what's being going on with tactical fighters for decades.

I have no horse in this race, not caring who gets the contract because I see it as a wash. I will grant giving business, even partially, to a foreign entity is not entirely desirable and, despite how the Air Force measures the programs against each other, I believe it's going to boil down to the perception of who we give money to. The cries of loss of technology is just window dressing.

Iraq, Tankers, Economy and more

Two stories from Iraq, Pete Hegseth at NRO looks at the political developments in Iraq and how US political leaders could learn something from them. The second compares how the NY Times verses a boot on the ground sees the same offensive. David French explain why an operation where bad guys did escape is not necessarily a bad thing. Its an interesting perspective from someone who is there.

Some of the Republicans are talking about tax cuts and spending cuts. The economy is the biggest concern from Republicans. But while it is easy to talk the talk (after all, candidates who tell the electorate what they don't want to hear (remember president Walter Mondale who promised to raise our taxes if he won, neither do I) generally don't win elections or nominations. Larry Kudlow looks at the statements from McCain and Romney. McCain I do not believe because of his record for the last 8 years, he's saying the right thing, but I just do not trust him to do what he says. I haven't made up my mind about the other candidates yet, my ballot is sitting on my desk now and have to decide who I want to vote for. Any suggestions other then McCain, Huckabee or Paul are welcome. I WILL not vote for any of them in the primary.

Citigroup is writing off more bad mortgages. This latest write off will hurt their balance sheet but do not know if it will really hurt their cash flow or if this is more of a bookkeeping entry.

Finally, Airbus says it will build the KC-30 tankers in the US if it wins the contract. Personally, I just assume buy Boeing 777's, put an extra gas tank in the luggage compartments and use the rest of the space for cargo (like the KC-10) and be done with it. Why are we still flying tankers that were build in the early 1960s? Their engines are not as efficient as current engines, their airframes are old and we use our tankers a lot.

Have a good day.

IAF F-35s

Israel is pushing hard to get the stealthy F-16, the F-35, into the inventory by 2012 and some think its because of the timetable to Iranian nukes. I, for one, would enjoy seeing what those guys can do with the platform since Israel is the next best thing to an operational test range.

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This weekend and the J-10A

I have a 2004 Prius, ordered it in December 2003 and picked it up in June 2004. I do enjoy the car and the gas mileage. Well starting this last August, after I finished up my MBA program, my wife started to drive my car two days a week when she worked in downtown Los Angeles. Now, before my wife started to drive my car, the only scratches on it were some from freeway driving and the car in front throwing up a grain of sand at the car.

Well my wife has managed to scrape the right front fender on the curb and yesterday didn't see the gate at the trash bin was open and backed the car into it. The rear bumper now has some deep gashes and scratches to join the right front fender. Sigh. Oh yeah, my wife's car? She got a 2007 Rav4 earlier this year and there isn't a mark on it. Well she feels bad and the scratches are more cosmetic then anything else so guess I have to keep everything in perspective, the wife is more important then the car. And yes I told her that too, so I can't even use that as an excuse when I want to get a new toy like a Mini-14.

Tonight some friends from Pepperdine who just finished up their program in December are having a graduation party so will be seeing a lot of old classmates. This should be a lot of fun and a chance to do some networking too.

And finally, this we have to decide what we are going to do about Christmas cards this year. We didn't send any out last year and have to decide if we are going to send a letter or just email it to people.

Now for the J-10A.

This plane is a joint development fighter by China and Pakistan and is based on the F-16 and Israeli technology. It was supposed to use a Chinese engine but they still haven't worked out the bugs enough so are currently using Russian engines.

China is supposedly going to sell Iran 24 of them for $1 billion. I think this is a good time to sell Taiwan about 200 F-35A and 100 F-35C (VSTOL version) to replace their F-5 and other old planes and sell them a lot of AIM 120 missiles.

As for the J-10A, from what I've read about them in the open press, the plane is about as capable as an early F-16A, but as is also said, buying the plane is the easy part. Letting the pilots have enough air time is often the deciding factor between an effective air force and target drones for the other side to practice on.

Have a good weekend.

Can I put in my pre-order????

A news release from Boeing and commented on by Hugh Hewitt, a new air to ground laser (aka death ray) has been installed in an airplane and will be ready for testing in 2008.

Gee, see a target, flash of light and no more target. Osama . . . tick, tock, tick, tock (see Peter Pan about the clock).

The Washington Times has an editorial looking at the 34 years of experience Hilary Clinton is claiming in her presidential run.

The Pope says any solution to Global Warming would need to be based on sound science. Gee a religious leader saying we should rely on science and not on the belief of certain groups to make public policy. And who says the Church is anti-science today?

News roundup

Lot of news to share today and so without further ado . . .

In Austria, a gorilla still isn't considered a person. The lawsuit has now been thrown out of three courts but the group says they will appeal. I'm glad Austria is still showing common sense, a gorilla isn't a person, but its scary that they only need one judge to change the basic definition of what a person is.

British Airways is buying a lot of airplanes and decided to split the order between the Boeing 787 and Airbus 380. Personally I think BA will quietly cancel or sideline the 380s when their true operating costs are known.

Now we can see if yanks care where things are made. Toy stores are starting to set up areas in their stores where all toys are made in the US or Europe so shoppers can avoid toys made in China. Be interesting to see how long that will last.

Israel, Syria, the US and the rest of the Middle East are still not talking about the Israeli air attack on Syria last week. Here are some suggestions on why that may be.

John McCain is a smart man, but in a serious article on energy independence he makes a stupid premise. We need to become oil independent so lets increase the use of nuclear power for generating electricity. Ok, first, increasing the use of nuclear power is not a bad idea. But we DO NOT use much oil to make electricity. We use natural gas and coal for the majority of our electrical generation. Oil accounts for less then 5% of our electricity generation needs. We use oil for TRANSPORTATION. So building a lot of nuclear plants won't solve our oil use unless you think we will all drive electric cars.

And speaking of cars, here is an interesting article on the future transportation modes.

The new Iraqi Army and why it has taken so much time to get them up to speed.

The sub-prime bailout and costs to landlords and the tax nightmare being envisioned.

Have a good day.

A Moment of Silence

Seems that now the DoD is shredding retired F-14s, to keep them (or assorted parts) from falling into the hands of the axis of evil. A moment please, for a fallen warrior.

C17 Pictures - Amazing

Received this in an email from my dad. I can't authenticate it but it "feels" correct.


For you aviators, you will enjoy this. For the non-aviators...you will be amazed.

C-17 Just wait until you get to picture number 5

#1


#2


#3


#4


#5


#6


#7

The four builders are shown in the image above. Colin Straus, the owner, is at the nose of the aircraft.

This 1/9th scale radio-controlled C-17 model was built in the United Kingdom . It was built as the centerpiece of a 15 program television series produced in the U.K. for the Home and Leisure satellite TV channel.

Built with the aid of three friends, it took one year to build and is powered with 4 Jetcat P-120 turbines with a total thrust of 108 lbs. The model weighs over 250 lbs fueled, and carries 12.5 liters (3.3 US gallons) of 95% kerosene and 5% turbine oil fuel. Other details include 5 Futaba PCM receivers, 16 battery packs (93 cells), 20 Futaba servos, on board air compressor, electro/pneumatic retracts, etc. Wingspan is 20 feet 8 inches, and the top of the if n is 74 inches (6 feet 2 inches) above the ground. Takeoff weight is 264 lbs.

The rear cargo doors open and they drop an r/c jeep on a pallet, as well as 2 free-fall r/c parachutists.

The model also has smoke systems both of the inboard turbines, and uses a 2.4 GHz data link to provide real-time data to a laptop computer on the ground while in flight. This data includes airspeed, turbine RPM, EGT, fuel consumption, etc. Built mainly from balsa and ply, with many glass and carbon fiber moldings to reduce weight. It is covered in fiberglass and epoxy resin. Complete with retractable landing gear and pneumatically operated flaps.

This C-17 Globe Master III is one of the largest jet models in the world today!

Airplanes, simulations and stuff

Stayed at home yesterday, throat was inflamed. Its still tender today but manageable. Did make it to class last night, basically, as long as I can stand 2 out of 3 tries, I will make class. Our simulation went well for Year 4 Quarters 3 & 4. We are just at the point we can start making serious money and taking on the competition. The only bad news is out stock price has increased so buying back shares has become much more expensive.

Airplanes in the news:

Russia is selling MIGs to Iran and Syria so they will be able to defend their airspace. Its a good deal all around. Russia gets paid for the aircraft, pilot training and maintenance, Iran and Syria get some shiny new toys to gloat over and the US and Israel have their target drones for the next two years. Its a win, win, win situation. Ok, the Iranian and Syrian pilots may not think so. Remember the last time Syria and Israel tangled in the air it was Israel 82 kills to Syria 0 kills. Hat tip Lucianne.

Airbus has announced sales of its aircraft totaling $45 billion at the Paris Air Show. That is 10 times what Boeing announced. Airbus is having a good week, which they need after the last year with all the problems they have had with the 380 and the 350. It is still to be seen if Airbus can get the 380 program back on track and if its design for the 350 will work as advertised. Hat tip Lucianne.

I generally do not have too many nice things to say about University Presidents in the US, they seem to mostly be about keeping the faculty happy, even when the faculty needs to be reprimanded (think the professors at Duke who slandered the lacrosse players and never bothered to apologize) and raise money. Even Larry Summers got fired for stating the obvious, men and women are different and one aspect of that difference is that people tend to gravitate towards different areas of study. Its not that woman CAN'T make it in the hard sciences, but that on the whole, many prefer not to. Anyway I fear the rest of this post may be lost because any visitor may stop reading and Harvard isn't what I'm writing about.
Columbia University has said publicly, that if the UK university faculty decide to boycott Israel universities, to boycott Columbia as well. Good for him. Hat tip Lucianne.

Have a good day and thanks for stopping by.

Aircraft . . . . .

I don't know how else to title this post, two different topics:

1. What aircraft have been landed on US aircraft carriers?

Well the usual include, F3F, F4F, F4U, F8F, A4, F4, F8, A6, A7, F14, F18, F35 (someday) among others.

But what about the P51D, U2 and the C130? They did and were considered to make part of the Navel Air Arm. Take a look, and no these are not photo shopped (unlike the C17 photo).

Hat tip Arrgghhh!!!

2. Hunter-Viper Strike Team Completes Successful Missile Range Tests

The bad guys are going to find it a lot harder to hide hope the system can be deployed soon to Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan (ok, fly it in from Afghanistan) and the Mediterranean (fly it over Gaza and West Bank and South Lebanon and see if it can pick out the terrorists there as well).

Hat tip Arrgghh!!!!