Wednesday, July 30, 2003

Babe better than Bonds? Yes, but...

Alright, Rob. You leave me no choice but to respond. First off:

1. Bonds does not have a loud mouth. Pro wrestlesrs have a loud mouths. Bonds, like Charles Barkley, has an honest mouth. Is he cantankerous. Yes. Is he a phony? Absolutely not. Who would you rather have on your team, Jeff Kent or Barry Bonds? Giants teammates all liked Bonds more than Kent.

2. Ruth was hitting home runs when it wasn't cool to hit homers. Ruth changed the game into an exciting game with triples, steals, and hit and runs to a game dominated by the home run. Ruth revolutionized the game and he should be given full credit for that.

3. If you want to look at the total package, Babe Ruth was an all-star level pitcher for the Red Sox in the 1910s. Combined that with his offense, it is clear that Ruth is the greatest player in baseball history, bar none.

However, forget that. Who is the superior hitter? By all reasonable accounts, it boils down to: Babe Ruth, Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, Ted Williams, Honus Wagner and Barry Bonds. Forget Pete Rose - all he did was hit singles.

If you look at the total package - hitting for average, ability to get on base, slugging percentage, you have to consider Bonds as high as any of the others, except for maybe Williams. Williams, missed five prime seasons to military service, three in World War II and two more during the Korean War.

Here's the problem with Babe Ruth - he didn't play against all the best players. Why? There were no blacks in baseball from the late 1800s until 1947 when Jackie Robinson made his MLB debut. You had great Negro League pitchers that were banned from baseball. How do you think Barry would've done if you take out all the non-white players? So I would penalize Ruth for that. Bonds is playing against the best baseball players in the world.

Ruth hit 714 home runs, Bonds currently has 646. Bonds will probably surpass Mays by the end of this season. Speedwise, Bonds has stolen 500 bases. Mays has stolen 338. Ruth stole 123 but was caught 117 times.

Let's take a look at this stat called OPS+. This is on-base percentage plus slugging percentage (the best single stat to measure a player's productivity) compared to one's peers. An OPS+ of 100 means the player was league average. Ruth's OPS+ is 207, again against inferior competition. Williams' OPS+ is 190. Bonds' career OPS+, coming into this season is 177, fourth all time behind Ruth, Williams and Lou Gehrig. Gehrig's OPS+ is 179 and with Bonds', again being baseball's most productive hitter, will probably jump into the low 180s over his career. Again, this is adjusted for era and ballpark so this value is normalized whether it was in an era of high or low offense. (In case you're interested, Aaron is at 155, Mays is at 156, Rogers Hornsby is at 175, and Honus Wagner (a shortstop) is at 150. Frank Thomas is at 163 and Manny Ramirez is at 157).

There is a myth that Ruth played in an era of low offense. That is patently untrue. The dead ball era ended in 1919 and from then on, the AL was a very high offense era.

These are the AL team runs per game from 1920 to 1935, the main part of Ruth's career:
4.76, 5.12, 4.75, 4.78, 4.98, 5.20, 4.73, 4.92, 4.76, 5.01, 5.41 (1930), 5.14, 5.23, 5.00, 5.13, 5.09.

There are the NL team runs per game from 1987 to 2002, the balance of Bonds' career:
4.52, 3.88, 3.94, 4.20, 4.10, 3.88, 4.49, 4.62, 4.63, 4.68, 4.60, 4.60, 5.00, 5.00 (2001), 4.70, 4.45

Let's put them in table form, from highest to lowest:


Babe Bonds
5.41 5.00
5.23 5.00
5.20 4.70
5.14 4.68
5.13 4.63
5.12 4.62
5.09 4.60
5.01 4.60
5.00 4.52
4.98 4.49
4.92 4.45
4.78 4.20
4.76 4.10
4.76 3.94
4.75 3.88
4.73


It really isn't close. Bonds is playing in a much more difficult offensive era, to the tune of at least a half-run per game. Consider that Yankee Stadium has that short porch in RF and Pac Bell Park (and Candlestick) is the second most difficult park to score in in the NL, it's clear that Bonds has an advantage. RCF in Pac Bell is 421 feet away.

Do I think Ruth is still a better hitter? Yes. But it's really hard to evaluate players while they're still active so let's just enjoy Bonds' Ruthian feats as he marches toward Mays, Ruth, and Aaron. Will he break 755? I wouldn't doubt it. He's 39 years old and he's still far and away the best offensive player in baseball (well ahead of Albert Pujols). Don't let the batting average and RBIs fool you. It's hard to drive in runs when you're being walked 150 times a year. If Barry walked as often as Pujols, Barry would have 110 RBI by now.

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