Saturday, June 12, 2004

Poll the Polls

Kaus takes on the LATs recent poll that shows Kerry ahead of Bush by six points. Interesting takes, VERY interesting, for example, Kaus asks:

Can Bush really be losing nationally by 6 points and still be winning Missouri by 11 points? Seems unlikely. One possible explanation: The Times apparently used a different telephoning outfit to conduct the state-by-state polls than it used for the national poll. Might not something in the different survey techniques of the two firms have skewed the results in two directions? "I don't know. I can't answer that. That's a legitimate question," said [Susan Pinkus, LATs polling director]. If there is a difference in the results of the two survey techniques--even using the exact same questions--then which technique is more accurate? Maybe the Times' technique really does skew results to the left, no? (That would explain a lot!) Or its subcontractor's technique might skew results to the right.

Kaus also cites the LATs earlier polling mischief during the Gray Davis recall fiasco. And while you're at Slate, you might as well check out the most "Unlikely Hero" on 9/11: an accountant who put on his old Marine BDUs, drove to the WTC rubble in his Porsche from Conneticut and helped save two of the last three survivors found.

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