Wednesday, June 09, 2004

South Korean Defense - a response

I could have put my reply in the comments section, but since very few comments are left, and those who visit may not click on it, thought I would make a new post to state my reply.

I agree with Rob and the Fox News poll that we should pull a third of our troops from South Korea. However, I disagree with Rob that our presence is only a symbolic gesture.

We have a large number of troops in Korea and on the front line for the same reason we have a large number of troops in Germany on the front lines. Europe and South Korea know that defense treaties are not worth the paper they are written on. Nations may promise to come to the aid of other nations, but as the UK and France proved in the 1930s and US proved in the 1970s, if its not in the interest of the nation providing the men and material to come to the defense of the attacked country, then they won't come or won't try to come until its too late.

We have troops in South Korea and in Germany so if North Korea or the old Soviet Union attacked, the US would suffer hundreds if not thousands of casualties and would be forced to fight with all our might to defend these places.

Now we are looking to move our troops out of Germany because there isn't a Soviet Union any more and our troops would be more useful either in Poland or back in the US (more deployable).

In South Korea, by moving the US troops off the front line and cutting down their number, the hope is they will not be a pawn in the US - North Korea nuclear standoff. The NK won't be able to say "give us oil or food or we will kill your troops". They may lose the war, but the loss of lots of US troops when some supplies would keep them alive is not a way for politicians to stay in office.

Reducing the number of troops but prepositioning more equipment and moving it farther south, out of the range of the NK guns, will remove the blackmail from the NK cards and by leaving the troops in country the US is still providing the trip wire to come to the defense of South Korea.

While North Korea may think (wishfully) it could win a war against South Korea, they know they cannot win against the South and the US. That is why we need to keep a significant number of troops there. Their presence increases the peace and their withdrawal would increase the chance of war.

As to the protests, a minority can make the news and give the impression they represent the majority. Moving the US military out of Seoul and reducing their number will reduce the friction between the US and citizens of South Korea. The rest is just politics as usual.

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